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DTN Midday Grain Comments     06/07 11:08

   Corn, Wheat Futures Lower at Midday; Soybeans Mixed

   Corn futures are 5 to 11 cents lower at midday Wednesday; futures are 13 to 
28 cents lower.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   Corn futures are 5 to 11 cents lower at midday Wednesday; futures are 13 to 
28 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is mixed with the S&P unchanged. The U.S. 
Dollar Index is 10 points lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies 
are firmer with crude 1.00 higher and natural gas up .03. Livestock trade is 
mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold off 10.00.


   Corn futures are 5 to 11 cents lower with spread action remaining firmer. 
Early gains turned to selling Wednesday as the weekend rains draw closer, and 
we see position-squaring heading towards the report Friday. Ethanol showed 
gains of 32,000 barrels per day (bpd) on production, and a stocks build of 
616,000 barrels. On Friday's USDA report, trade is looking for old-crop 
carryout of 1.449 billion bushels (bb) up slightly from last month, with new 
crop at 2.254 bb, also up slightly. Basis continues to hold a softer tone with 
better movement possibilities as fieldwork wraps up. Most rains are expected to 
stay in the Western Corn Belt until the front passes this weekend, allowing 
post-emergence spraying to make good progress. The second crop in Brazil 
continues to head toward the home stretch with some recent rains, and a cold 
front that could hurt some of the last-planted corn in the coming days. On the 
July chart we have support at the 20-day moving average of $5.87 with trade 
pressing back toward the recent high at $6.14.


   Soybean futures are 3 cents lower to 7 cents higher with firmer spread 
trade. Early gains are turning to two-sided action as trade hangs around nearby 
resistance levels with mixed product action. Meal is $4.50 to $6.00 higher and 
oil is 10 to 20 points lower. On USDA's report Friday, trade will be looking 
for 223 million bushels (mb) of old-crop carryout, and 345 mb of new, up 
slightly from last month. Basis will likely remain a little softer with most 
buyers rolling to the back months. Planting should be on the homestretch 
nationally with the east remaining drier in the short term before broader rains 
should boost emergence. July chart support is the 20-day moving average at 
$13.46, which we are just above overnight, with the Upper Bollinger Band well 
above the market at $14.10.


   Wheat futures are 13 to 28 cents lower with Chicago leading action as 
selling took off. Spreads continue to unwind after being able to extend Tuesday 
on the dam explosion in Ukraine, along with early harvest progress in the 
Southern Plains. On the report Friday, trade is looking for old-crop carryout 
at 606 mb, up slightly, and new crop at 569 mb, also up slightly. Warmer 
weather may stress spring wheat in the short term, but otherwise we are caught 
up after the slow start. Plains harvest should pick up around rains this week 
as well, keeping us near an average pace there. There are some concerns with 
the longer-term weather pattern for Australia as well. The U.S. dollar is just 
off the recent highs, with Matif wheat slightly lower. On the KC July chart, 
the $8.00 area failed to hold Wednesday morning, with the lower Bollinger band 
at $7.67 as support.


   Join us for DTN's webinar at 12:30 p.m. CDT Friday as we go through the 
numbers, discuss what they mean for prices and hear DTN Lead Analyst Todd 
Hultman's take on which estimates are reasonable and which are not. We also 
welcome and make time for questions. Register here for Friday's June WASDE and 
Crop Production reports webinar:    

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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